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Discount rate (cost of capital)

The yearly return you demand, used to discount future cash flows back to today. We treat it as a judgment about business quality, not a precise calculation: start from the risk-free rate (the 10-year Treasury) and add a premium for the business's risk — about 2.5 points for a high-quality compounder, rising to 8.5 points for a below-average one. The textbook formulas pretend to a precision the inputs cannot support.

The textbook cost of capital (WACC) blends the cost of debt and the cost of equity: WACC = (E/V) × r_e + (D/V) × r_d × (1 − tax). The cost of equity, r_e, usually comes from another formula (CAPM): r_e = r_f + β × (r_m − r_f).

The trouble is that β jumps around, the extra return demanded for stocks is just a guess, and the exact-looking results (8.42%, 9.17%, and so on) are false precision. Shaky assumptions run through a precise formula still give a precisely wrong number.

So we use a simple quality-band approach instead. Start from the risk-free rate (the 10-year Treasury) and add a premium for bearing this business's risk:

• High quality (durable moat, predictable cash, low debt): +2.5 points • Above average (good franchise, modest ups and downs): +4.5 points • Average (ordinary business): +6.5 points • Below average (cyclical, leveraged, or no moat): +8.5 points

With the 10-year Treasury near 4.5%, those work out to roughly 7%, 9%, 11%, and 13%. But the rate now floats with the bond market, so the same business is not made to look cheap or dear purely by the interest-rate regime it is valued in.

The band is a judgment you make, not a number the model computes. It is the most opinionated input in any DCF, so making it visible and easy to change is more honest than hiding it inside a formula.

When testing how sensitive the answer is, we move the rate up and down by 2 percentage points around the chosen band. That is wider than the real uncertainty most of the time, but narrow enough to be useful.

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